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SEPTEMBER 15,  2021

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT: 

YIKES!  THE MAN MUST BE RUNNING – FROM DAILY MAIL:   Former President Donald Trump predicted that the U.S. would be over even before the next presidential election - in his latest dig at President Joe Biden.   'And our country has gone really downhill in the last eight months, like nobody's ever seen before,' Trump told his former press secretary Sean Spicer, calling into Spicer's Newsmax show Tuesday night. 'And we're not going to have a country left in three years, I'll tell you that.'   Trump continued to protest that the 2020 election was 'rigged' against him - mentioning 2022 and 2024 in the same breath.  'And you go to these elections coming up in '22 and '24 - we're not going to have a country left. The election was rigged,' he told Spicer.   The ex-president wouldn't say if he would be running in the next presidential race, but strongly hinted that was the case.   'I will probably not comment on that, but I will tell you I think you will be very happy Sean,' he told Spicer. 'I think you and a lot of other people that love our country are going to be very happy.'   'I could make it soon, but that get's complicated,' Trump remarked on timing.   He previously said he wouldn't announce until he saw how the Republicans performed in the 2022 midterms.  Trump is a shrewd fox.  The thing he probably fears the most is running and losing.  It would be complete humiliation.  I'd imagine he'll certainly wait until after the midterms to decide, and that the polls would have to lean heavily in his direction for him to run.  

A GRAVE OFFENSE – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   A conservative group is asking the Office of Congressional Ethics to launch an investigation of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for accepting free tickets to Monday’s Met Gala, where she wore a custom gown that said “Tax the Rich.”  The self-declared socialist congresswoman drew broad social media scorn for partying at the elite $35,000-per-ticket event while presenting herself as their rabble-rousing foe.  Thomas Jones, founder of the American Accountability Foundation, wrote in an ethics complaint that he believes Ocasio-Cortez, who represents parts of the Bronx and Queens, broke House rules by accepting “an impermissible gift” of free tickets to attend the annual gala, which also was attended by fellow New York Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney.  Although House rules allow members to accept free tickets to charity events directly from event organizers, Jones argues that the Met Gala doesn’t count because the guest list is curated by a private company, media giant Condé Nast.  “[W]hile the individual’s invitations may bear the name of the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Museum has ceded control over the invitations to a for-profit company, specifically Condé Nast, and to its Chief Content Officer, Anna Wintour,” Jones wrote.  I think it's a major offense.  I want to see the trial televised.  My belief is that a life sentence is called for.  But expect worldwide demonstrations for her among socialists and other conspirators.  She could wind up a martyr, like Evita Perón. 

September 15, 2021       Permalink

CALIFORNIA AFTERMATH – OVERNIGHT:  The wonks are already at work analyzing the California recall, won handily by incumbent incompetent Gavin Newsom.  I guess the people of California felt more comfortable with the devil they know.

Republicans are finding things to like in the voting pattern.   I hope this isn't wishful thinking.  From RedState: 

Though the effort to relieve California Dictator Gov. Gavin Newsom of his duties a little early did not go the way recall proponents wanted it to, all hope is not lost on the electoral front for Republicans because though Newsom will remain in office at least until the 2022 gubernatorial election, there are warning signs among the results from the recall (which are still coming in) that do not bode well for Democrats in the state and nationally going into the 2022 midterms.

Longtime polling analyst Dave Wasserman looked at the tea leaves among the incoming numbers for various competitive House districts in the state, and said the “Yes” numbers in some of them pointed to “an environment in which Republicans take back the House and Senate in 2022”:

Even though the recall resoundingly failed, "Yes" is on track to prevail in a handful of competitive House districts, including in Orange County.

Even a 20-25% "No" margin statewide could be consistent w/ an environment in which Republicans take back the House & Senate in 2022.

In a follow-up tweet, he emphasized putting “off-year races in context,” noting that the “same ~5 pt swing right from the 2020 Biden/Trump margin would easily win Rs the House & Senate in 2022”:

I can't overstate the need to put these off-year races in context. If Newsom survives by 25% (?) and McAuliffe were to win by 5%, they'd be spun as big Dem wins.

But that same ~5 pt swing right from the 2020 Biden/Trump margin would easily win Rs the House & Senate in 2022.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 15, 2021

Beyond Wasserman’s analysis was polling/election numbers cruncher Nate Cohn, who pointed to the fact that Newsom’s Latino support was nothing to write home about:

According to the California exit poll, Newsom fared better among white college graduates than nonwhite voters in the state.

Newsom isn't even faring better among Latino than non-Latino voters pic.twitter.com/5nLkMnWcvg
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 15, 2021

This dovetails with what we’ve seen in states like Texas, where Democrats are seeing a steady, persistent drop in support among Latino voters.

COMMENT:  Read the rest and tell me what you think.  The drop in Latino support for the Dems is a growing story, and possibly the most critical political story in the next year.  It's also been noted that Democratic support has been dropping among Asian Americans, the fastest-growing minority in the country. 

If the Dems falter among Latinos and Asian-Americans, they're in a very tough spot.  There just aren't enough modern-dance majors and social-justice minors to make up the difference. 

September 15, 2021       Permalink

SEPTEMBER 14,  2021

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT: 

TRUMP SNAPS BACK – FROM NEWSMAX:   Claims made in the new book by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley took action after Jan. 6 to limit then-President Donald Trump's power are all a bid to draw attention away from the Biden administration's ''incompetent'' withdrawal from Afghanistan, Trump told Newsmax.  You never heard the word China mentioned in a thing like this, Trump said Tuesday in a telephone interview on "Spicer & Co."  "You heard a lot of anger about China on trade, and we made a great trade deal. You heard a lot of anger ... with the China virus. But for them, for him to say ... that I would even think about attacking China, I think he's trying to just get out of his incompetent withdrawal out of Afghanistan."  Trump called the withdrawal "probably the most embarrassing thing that's ever happened to our country" with 13 U.S. service members killed at the airport in Kabul with less than a week before the pullout.  "We left with embarrassment on our face," Trump said. "We left Americans behind. And we left $85 billion worth of the best equipment in the world that I bought, because I was the one that rebuilt our military, and then Biden gave it away."  For Milley to say Trump "was going to attack China is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard, and everybody knows it," Trump said. "That is a treasonous statement."  Trump slammed the claims in Woodward and Costa's book that Milley feared Trump might go "rogue" after failing to secure the presidency and order a nuclear attack. He noted he had read recently that he was the only president in decades who "didn't start a war."  Trump said he would have handled the Afghanistan withdrawal much differently than Biden, who has been criticized by the right and left for adhering to the Aug. 31 withdrawal deadline and for leaving U.S. citizens and allies behind.  "We had a good agreement. They had to meet a lot of conditions," Trump said. "They wouldn't meet them, and we bombed the hell out of them, and they'd call and they'd say, all right, we'll meet them."  Like him or dislike him, at least Trump has a clear mind and an accurate view of the real world.  There is indeed a real world, but the Democrats think it exists only in faculty lounges and street demonstrations.  This story will grow.  It has to.  If Milley did what is alleged in the new book, he may have to face legal charges.    The first TV court-martial.  Gee, what a concept. 

September 14, 2021       Permalink

AS EXPECTED – OVERNIGHT:  California Governor Gavin Newsom has apparently won a landslide victory in his fight to beat off a recall.  We caution that the vote count is incomplete, and that most of the votes counted thus far were submitted by mail.  It's assumed that most of these are Democratic votes.  However, we can safely say that Newsom has kept his job, although the final totals may show a closer victory.  From CBS News: 

CBS News projects that the "no" vote will win the recall election, meaning Governor Gavin Newsom will remain in office. Newsom avoided an upset loss that would have sent Democrats scrambling ahead of the upcoming 2021 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the 2022 midterm elections.

Less than one hour after polls closed, Newsom addressed supporters.

"'No' is not the only thing that was expressed tonight," he said. "I want to focus on what we said 'yes' to as a state. We said yes to science. We said yes to vaccines. We said yes to ending this pandemic.

We said yes to people's right to vote without fear of fake fraud or voter suppression."

The "no" vote won out with with most demographic groups: Majorities of both men and women, White and non-White voters, and voters of all age groups all voted against the recall.  

This was the sixth recall attempt against Newsom, but the first to reach the threshold of signatures needed to trigger an election. The recall began in February 2020, when a group called the California Patriot Coalition aimed to remove Newsom over his policies on COVID-19, homelessness, immigration and the state's taxes and affordability. 

The recall effort really took off after Newsom was spotted dining inside an upscale Napa Valley restaurant while his lockdowns on indoor dining were in place. 

The nation's most populous state was first to order statewide shutdowns at the onset of the pandemic, and Newsom was first to require vaccine and mask mandates for healthcare workers and teachers.

In the closing weeks of the campaign, Newsom and Democrats focused on his response to COVID-19 as well as national issues like  threats to women's rights in the wake of Texas' abortion law. 

Exit polling indicated COVID-19 was the main issue voters cared about: while Newsom's handling of the disease galvanized the recall movement, voters ultimately approved of Newsom's decisions in addressing it, and he was able to capitalize on that in the closing weeks of the race.  Roughly 30% of voters said COVID-19 is the most important issue facing California, followed by about a quarter who picked homelessness. The economy, wildfires and crime rounded out the top 5 issues.

For those voting "no" on the recall (keeping Gavin Newsom as governor), the coronavirus is the issue they see as the most important facing their state. For those voting "yes" on the recall (removing Newsom as governor), the economy and homelessness are the most important for them. Proponents of the effort to recall Newsom have been critical of Newsom's COVID policies, mostly arguing that they are too strict.

COMMENT:  California is overwhelmingly Democratic, by as much as two to one.  Newsom's opponents had to overcome that gap, and the money gap as well.  Newsom was vastly better financed than those who wanted him out.

The results are a warning to Republicans.  The year 2022, already hyped as a Republican year, will be a tough battle for us.  Nothing is guaranteed, nothing is in the bag.  There was a point in the California campaign when polls showed Newsom in serious danger of being escorted from his office.  But he and his party fought back vigorously, and no Republican candidate emerged who could out-charm the governor. 

Next up will be the governor's race in Virginia, to be decided this November.  The race is close, but the Democrat is winning.  And the Democrats will have the money to close big in the last week of the campaign.  Virginia used to be solidly red.  It then became purple, and then blue.  A key state in presidential elections, it should be seen as a major prize that we must win in the weeks remaining until election day.  Flipping Virginia would be exceptionally good for our morale.

September 14,  2021     Permalink